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Not seemingly during this half of the year. I read that since Fed lost in Dubai - and was the def. champ - Nadal can close to within 125 points if he takes the title (but has to beat Roddick and Djokovic on the hardcourts there). So what's coming up? Indian Wells and Miami, where Federer has very few points to defend (R64, R16 respectively). Nadal? Way more points to defend (W, QF), which means anything short of those results equals a drop in total ranking points. And even into the claycourt season, Nadal has nowhere to go but down (4 W, 1 RU in '07).

Do any of you think there will be some exchanging of the #1 ranking this year? Like back to the early 90s with Becker, Edberg, Courier, etc.

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Wow. I just can't imagine that. We havent had #1 change in so long.... I'm thinking that will be next year and that it will not be nadal but Djokovic that is the next number 1. Good point about Fed's points to defend - not many. IW is where he lost his first suprise match against Canas... If Federer is looking more vulnerable, I consider that match as the one that started it off.

M
I think Nadal plays too much..His grinding style takes way too much out of him by the end of the year, and his body seems to fall apart by the end of hardcourt season..If he picks his events better, he can catch Fed. I laugh when everyone i hear starts talking about Federer losing his edge, the guy has lost like 16 times in the last 4 years..Imagine traveling the world nonstop every 2 weeks in a different part of the world, being pulled in every direction by tournaments, media, fans,practices,all the while trying to keep such an unbelievable amount of focus and preperation for every single match..The guy is just a tennis god...
Only if he gets mono again :)
I think that Roger is starting to slip. It still make take some time to knock him ffrom #1 but I believe this is the beginning of the end. Think about it... how many times did we think that Lendl or Courier or Sampras were unstoppable?? They eventually lost their prowess, and so will Roger.
Ok, we already talked about this, but I feel we need to relay it to everyone. If you take it in terms of years at #1, the Lendl and Courier examples would mean that Roger's time is about up. But the Sampras example not so much cuz he finished #1 six straight years (although he didnt hold it the whole time during that span). Courier just filled a void (see Hewitt circa 2002) between Lendl/Edberg and Sampras and then everyone caught up to him. Lendl and Sampras were at or near the top until they were about 30, so in that regard, Federer's got a ways to go. I agree with what BigMike says above about Nadal (if he doesnt change his schedule, he'll have serious problems by the time he's 25), so maybe soon we'll see a Federer-Djokovic #1 rivalry...
Well, in my opinion, I have not seen Federer have such a big collapse where he has lost the #1 ranking given how big a margin for error he has to defend his points. I believe that he will snap out of this slump and win tournaments again. He is just way too good and consistent to give away the #1 ranking like that. If Nadal could be more consistent with his performances and his successful results, then I would give him a shot to at least challenge Federer for the #1 ranking.
Regarding your first sentence, so what are you saying, that it's your opinion that he's never given up the #1 ranking? Sorry, maybe I missed something or misunderstood.
Even though Federer has lost to a few players recently, I believe he will maintain his dominance for at least 2 more years. Djokster deserved to win against him at the Aussie, but Dubai was an aberration.
Sampras dominated like this but Federer just seems to have more variety - Sampras admits so himself. With due respect, none of the other players were in the same league - maybe thats just a perception.

I'm glad to see more players challenging him though - Nadal, Djokovic, Nalbandian - this will be a very interesting year for tennis fans.

-V

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