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Hi Everybody ,

It's too cold outside & no tennis to watch until the end of the year so I did a small fun project to calculate all ATP players based on Elo Ranking System. For now, only results of 4 Grand Slams in 2013, Barclay Finals and are included.

Initial points: 10,000
K factor:
32 x 4 (Grand Slams)
32 x 3 (Barclay Finals)
32 x 1 (David Cup)

Here is what I got:

Rank Name Points Wins / Losses

1 Novak Djokovic 10,745 31 / 3
2 Rafael Nadal 10,643 18 / 2
3 Andy Murray 10,534 17 / 2
4 Stanislas Wawrinka 10,418 14 / 6
5 Mikhail Youzhny 10,362 11 / 4
6 Roger Federer 10,344 15 / 6
7 Tommy Robredo 10,328 10 / 4
8 Tomas Berdych 10,317 13 / 7
9 Tommy Haas 10,266 9 / 4
10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 10,261 10 / 3
11 Ivan Dodig 10,237 7 / 4
12 Juan Martin Del Potro 10,231 9 / 5
13 David Ferrer 10,227 19 / 7
14 Jerzy Janowicz 10,201 9 / 4
15 Denis Istomin 10,194 5 / 4
16 Janko Tipsarevic 10,192 8 / 4
17 Richard Gasquet 10,189 13 / 7
18 Julien Benneteau 10,184 7 / 4
19 Philipp Kohlschreiber 10,182 7 / 5
20 Lleyton Hewitt 10,180 4 / 4

Nadal is several points behind of Djokovic due to his defeat at Barclay Finals. David Ferer lost all 3 matches in Barclay so he ended up at number 13.

The full ranking and more information (match results, videos) can be found here: (Tab Ranking)

ATP players Elo ranking

I'll include more matches if time allows and there are interests.

Please let me know what you guys think.

Thanks,


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Hello Binh,

This is a very interesting study! As a decent chess player and enthusiastic tennis player, I have always wondered how the ATP men's lineup would look if one applied Arpad Elo's chess ranking system to tennis. But finding the time to collect the results and compute them was my problem. I always believed the lack of draws in tennis would make the results interesting to see.

Except for a few 'anomalies', I think the top players positions hold out rather well. Perhaps you should consider plotting your results against the official ATP ranking list using a 1:1 scale, estimating coefficients of correlation and determination, and seeing how close to 1.0 they are. Because the Elo system pushes you up based on the number of equally or higher-rated opponents you beat (with consistency and few loses as factors), the top three rankings seem plausible. Djokovic would be number #1 just like chess world champion Magnus Carlsen because of their head-to-head performances and consistent wins against the top players in the world in their respective sports. Ivan Dodig's position seems odd though, as does David Ferrer's.

SUGGESTIONS:

1. I'd be curious to see how these results using Elo ranking would change if we assumed that all 3-set and 5-set matches that went all the way to the final deciding set were draws :)

2. Consider re-writing these rather interesting results more neatly, include your data sources and methodology, and email them to the chess site www.chessbase.com and to Susan Polgar's blog (www.susanpolgar.blogspot.com). I bet it would be published and you would get many more technical responses and alternative opinions and suggestions.

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